4/9/2024 0 Comments Hotkey script for das traderStocks should move higher in the short term but don’t expect any rally to be long lasting. Inflation could potentially move to hyperinflation and will start to cause stagnation in the economy. Due to this conflict, the Fed will not do what it should’ve done long ago of raising interest rates to fight inflation. Whatever happens with the war in the short term, the long term effects on the economy have gotten worse. Food prices around the world should increase drastically, further exacerbating the inflationary problems of the world. Ukraine is the largest producer of wheat and grain in all of Europe. Other items to take into consideration are further interruptions of the supply chain. It is likely oil will reach its prior high of $147 per barrel if the West cuts off buying oil from Russia. Oil prices are rising and will drive up prices of many other commodities. More than likely inflation will need to continue to be considered. It’s important to know that technology stocks are the most interest-rate sensitive, so they have benefited the most by this delay in increase in the Fed Funds Rate.Īs we go into March, there are several factors to consider as traders. Now, they have come off the highs of the rebound, but if continued uncertainties prevail they will settle into a lower trading range. They initially pulled back considerably on the invasion but have since rebounded. Please see our blog on how to use Fib retracements.Ĭrypto currencies are now trading in tandem with technology stocks. Even if we rally, we no longer expect new highs as per our Fibonacci analysis. $GBTC (the Bitcoin ETF) has now made a greater than 60% pullback from its high on two occasions. It’s also important to note that silver tends to outperform gold in good times and underperform gold in bad times. Initially, gold was up against its all time high in the beginning of the invasion but has since pulled back. Continued monetary uncertainty makes these traditional currencies benefit from the flight to safety. Gold and silver are also set to make a significant breakout of their long time trading ranges. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced their sanctions which did not include the purchasing of oil and natural gas from Russia. They then backed away to about $90 a barrel once President Joe Biden and U.K. A second reason for a rally is that no serious sanctions had been imposed on Russia and the West has not stopped buying oil from Russia.Ībove, the chart shows oil prices skyrocketed to over $100 a barrel ( $USO the Oil ETF was above $70) on the initial invasion. The market has now stopped responding to normal market forces and is only responding to monetary stimulus from the Fed. This is why the markets have rallied since the initial invasion. financial markets? The Fed has immediately shelved its. What are some of the immediate effects on the U.S. It then moved steeply off that low as the Western world did not restrict the purchasing of Russian oil after it invaded Ukraine. Markets were factoring in at least seven rate increases by the end of 2022.Īs we can see above on the chart of the $SPY, the market made a measured move and a new low. It seems the Reserve’s dovish policies of free and cheap money are finally coming to an end. stock markets had dropped considerably last month as they started to factor in a. At the end of February, our biggest concern was the ever-increasing rate of inflation.
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